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Is Now a Good Time to Buy on Maui? A Mid-2026 Reality Check
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Quick Answer: Maui is a buyer's market right now, and real estate prices haven't been this low in years. Savvy buyers can land serious deals on great properties that they could have been priced out of just 3-4 years ago. However, elevated interest rates make financing a property more expensive, and there are questions about how much lower prices could go before they correct.
The question is never really about the timing of the market, really, it's about the timing in your life, and whether now is a good time to buy for you?
There are so many reasons my clients purchase property here on Maui. Buying a primary residence, second home, or investment property all carry different motivations and influence whether now is the right time for you.
However, making a calculated entry into the market can certainly improve the overall performance of your investment, and that's why it's important to consider where the market stands and how you can best take advantage of that as a buyer.
Browse Condos For Sale Around Maui
Where the Maui Market Stands in Mid-2026
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Let's start with the numbers, because they tell most of the story about where we are in the market and if the timing works for you.
Condo prices have taken the biggest hit. The median condo sales price came in at around $650,000 in June of 2026, down from $795,000 just a year ago. For the first quarter as a whole, the condo median ran near $699,000, down about 12 percent year over year. Some short-term rental complexes on the Minatoya List have given back even more from their 2022 peaks.
I recently helped a buyer purchase a unit in Honokowai priced at HALF of what it sold for in May of 2022, and it was in a complex that is likely to be allowed to upzone to Hotel while retaining its short-term rental ability. This was a rare opportunity where timing the market absolutely worked: we got an offer in on day one of the listing, and once we had an accepted offer, two other offers came in.
Single-family homes have softened more gradually. The June median landed around $1.2 million, down from $1.286 million year over year. The home market never ran up as hard as condos did on the STR investment wave, so it hasn't corrected as hard either. There is more single-family inventory than in past years, but it is nowhere near the amount of inventory in the condo market.
Everything is sitting on the market longer on average. Homes are averaging around 107 days on market and condos around 128, both up more than 20 percent from last year. This is for properties that sell; there are many expired and canceled listings in the condo category.
When properties routinely sit for four months, sellers negotiate. I'm seeing price reductions, closing cost credits, and concessions that simply didn't exist two to three years ago.
Demand has been quietly picking up. This is the part most headlines miss. Condo sales in June were actually up slightly year over year. Pending sales have also started to inch upwards. And the affordability index improved 26 percent over the past year, which is a fancy way of saying the math works for a lot more buyers than it did in 2024 or 2025.
Falling prices with rising sales activity is what the early stage of a market finding its footing usually looks like, and the Maui real estate market appears to be finding that.
Get a FREE Comparative Market Analysis in today's market. Read My Complete Guide to Selling Your Home or Condo on MauiWhat's your home worth?
Interest Rates Remaining Higher For Longer
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The Maui market started warming up over the winter, and it seemed like 2-3 rate cuts were on the horizon this year. However, geopolitical and broader economic uncertainty have changed the rate picture, and many economists now see a possible rate hike by the end of the year. This generally means less overall demand in the broader market.
While interest rates are among the most predictable variables in the real estate market — when rates go down, the market goes up, and when rates go up, the market goes down — the Maui market has also been digesting less predictable outcomes related to legislation on the legality of short-term rental properties.
Recent developments with Bill 88 — legislation that creates new hotel zoning classes for certain Minatoya List properties to upzone to — have improved the outlook for the condo market and will reward the buyers who took the risk on complexes like Wailea Ekahi, Kapalua Bay Villas, Palms at Wailea, and many others.
Newest Maui Properties For Sale
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The Three Questions Every Buyer Asks Me
Almost every buyer I talk to is wrestling with the same three things. Here's my take on each.
Have prices hit bottom yet?
Nobody knows, and anyone who claims to is selling something! What I can tell you is that 2025 was one of the worst statistical years for the Maui market since 2009, and 2026 has been noticeably stronger.
Pending transactions spiked about 40 percent over the winter before pulling back some in the spring. That kind of choppy improvement is typical when a market is bottoming rather than falling.
Here's the thing about bottoms, though: we will only see them in the rearview mirror. We will only know we have hit several months after it happens, and there won't be a single moment when prices go back up dramatically; the correction will happen gradually. There will be time to find the right opportunity at the right point in the market over the next 6-12 months.
Should I Wait For Mortgage Rates to Drop?
This is where 2026 threw everyone a curveball. At the start of the year, economists were penciling in two or three rate cuts. After the geopolitical shocks this spring and the pressure they've put on oil and bond yields, the expectation now is zero cuts this year, and possibly hikes.
If your whole plan was to wait for cheaper money, that plan is on hold indefinitely. The buyers winning right now are winning on price. A meaningful price reduction on a Maui property saves you real money for as long as you own it, and if rates ever do come down, you can refinance. You can't retroactively negotiate a better purchase price. I wrote more about this shift in my recent post on how the Maui market has changed and what to do about it.
Is Bill 9 Going to Tank Condo Values?
Bill 9, the county's effort to phase out short-term rentals in apartment-zoned complexes, is the single biggest reason condo prices have corrected this hard. The uncertainty is real. Lawsuits are working through the courts, and the county is still finalizing the new hotel zoning classes that would protect certain complexes.
But here's what gets lost: Bill 9 doesn't touch every condo on Maui equally. Hotel-zoned complexes keep their short-term rental rights regardless of how the litigation shakes out. Long-term communities were never affected in the first place. The complexes with genuine risk are the apartment-zoned ones on the Minatoya List, and even there, the outcome is far from settled.
That gap between perceived risk and actual risk is exactly where opportunity lives. Some buyers are painting every condo with the same brush and walking away from properties that face zero regulatory exposure. If you know which complexes are which, and this is genuinely where I spend most of my time with clients, you can buy well-positioned property at prices set by fear.
Where the Market Activity Is
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Not every corner of the island is behaving the same way. Kihei led the entire island in transaction volume in the first quarter, across both homes and condos. It's the busiest market on Maui right now because it offers the widest range of price points and the deepest pool of short-term rentable complexes. If you're starting a search, my Kihei real estate page is a good place to get a feel for the neighborhoods.
Wailea and Makena are also seeing real movement, with condo activity up almost 17 percent year over year as buyers step into recalibrated prices. The luxury market tends to move early in a recovery because those buyers are less rate-sensitive, and that's exactly what's happening. You can browse the current inventory on my Wailea condos page.
Who This Window Is For (and Who It Isn't)
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This is a good window if...you're planning to hold for five-plus years, you're buying a second home or long-term investment you'd want at any point in the cycle, you're in a strong cash position and, if financed, can handle a few years of higher rates, and you're willing to negotiate hard on properties that have been sitting.
This is also a good window if you're a cash or low-leverage buyer. With rate relief off the table for now, you're competing against a thinner field, and sellers know it.
You should probably wait if...your timeline is under three years, your budget only works at today's price with a future refinance you're counting on, or you'd lose sleep if values dipped another 5 percent before recovering. Short holds in a transitional market are how people get hurt.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Maui Market in 2026
How Much Have Maui Condo Prices Dropped?
The median condo price is down about 12 to 13 percent year over year as of spring 2026, sitting in the $645,000 to $699,000 range depending on the month. Some short-term rental complexes have corrected even further — 20 to 30 percent off their 2022 highs.
That's a meaningful reset, especially for investment-focused buyers who found STR-zoned condos out of reach a couple of years ago.
Give me a call and I can pull the comps for the specific complexes you're watching.
Is Maui a Buyer's Market in 2026?
Yes. Inventory is elevated, homes and condos are averaging well over 100 days on market, and sellers are negotiating on both price and terms — something that wasn't happening a few years ago.
At the same time, sales activity has started improving, which suggests this window won't stay this wide open forever. Buyers who move now are still negotiating from a position of strength.
Reach out and I can show you where sellers are actually flexible right now versus where they're holding firm.
Should I Wait for Mortgage Rates to Drop Before Buying on Maui?
Rate cut expectations for 2026 have largely evaporated, so waiting on rates means waiting indefinitely — with no guarantee prices stay this favorable in the meantime.
Most buyers are better served negotiating a lower purchase price now, while sellers are motivated, and refinancing later if rates do eventually fall. You can renegotiate a rate; you generally can't renegotiate the price you paid in a rising market.
Happy to run the numbers with you on a specific property so you can see how price and rate actually trade off.
How Does Bill 9 Affect Buying a Condo on Maui?
Bill 9 targets short-term rental use in apartment-zoned complexes, primarily those on the Minatoya List. Hotel-zoned complexes and long-term communities are not affected.
Verifying the zoning status of a specific complex before you offer is the single most important step for any Maui condo buyer right now — it can be the difference between a property that cash-flows as a vacation rental and one that can't legally operate as one.
Send me the complex you're considering and I'll confirm its zoning status before you go any further.
The Bottom Line on the Maui Market
Is now a good time to buy on Maui? For buyers with a real timeline and a long hold, yes, this is the strongest negotiating environment the island has offered in years.
Prices are down, sellers are motivated, and early signs of stabilization are already appearing in the sales data. The window where you get both lower prices and real leverage doesn't tend to last.
If you want to talk through your specific situation, whether that's a Kihei condo, a Wailea residence, or anything in between, call or text me at 808-214-4799. I'll give you the same straight answer I've given you here.
Evan Harlow ranks among the best real estate agents on Maui annually and is in the top 1% of Coldwell Banker agents worldwide in production. Evan has the expertise,
experience, and work ethic to help you achieve your real estate buying and selling goals. We promise
exceptional service and support from the beginning of the process through closing and beyond. See what Evan's clients are saying on Google. Get In Touch With Evan!
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