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Maui Real Estate Market Report June 2026: Bill 88, Improving Buyer Activity, Mayoral Race
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The May 2026 Maui real estate sales statistics present an interesting picture of the current state of the Maui market. If you’ve been watching the market, you’ve noticed it's a buyer’s market on Maui, and prices have been softening for almost two years now.
Even though it's a buyer's market, we still haven’t seen a noticeable increase in buying demand during this period, particularly in the condo market, due to concerns about Bill 9 and the higher interest rate cycle we find ourselves in.
However, in May, there was a 31% increase in pending sales in the condo market, along with positive news around Bill 88. Bill 88 will essentially water down the impact of Bill 9 by allowing roughly half of the apartment-zoned condo complexes on the Minatoya List to upzone to hotel zoning while retaining their short-term rental rights.
The rising pending sales and improving affordability index suggest buyers may be quietly stepping back in the market, and that the market could be finding a bottom.
Prices Continue to Retreat
The most striking headline is the significant price correction underway, particularly in the condominium segment. The median condo sales price fell 21.7% year-over-year to $597,000 in May, continuing a sustained downward trend that has persisted across nearly every month of the past year.
Single-family homes also saw a 9% decline in median price to $1,174,500. On a year-to-date basis, the combined median across all properties sits at $980,000, down 10.8% from the same period in 2025. Average sales prices tell an even sharper story: condo averages dropped 18.3%, and single-family averages fell 3.7% year-over-year. For buyers who were priced out during Maui's peak years, this correction represents a meaningful shift in accessibility.
Newest Maui Properties For Sale
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What I'm Seeing in the Maui Market
Over the last month or so, I have had 5 new escrows myself, and on every deal, whether or not I represented the buyer or the seller, there was a negotiation off of the list price. Some negotiations were steeper, and some were narrower, but the story remains that getting the list price as a seller or getting above market as a seller is a very tall order in today’s market.
A good pricing strategy is critical to successfully selling right now. On the buyer side, it's important to know your comps and make offers close enough to asking to start the conversation and discover how motivated a seller might be.
Apartment zoned STR’s that are not on the TIG exemption list are a tough sell right now. These are all over the market, and the ones that are selling are going for 30%-40% less than they were just 2-3 years ago.
Units in complexes that will be allowed to upzone under Bill 88 will become increasingly in demand this summer. While I don’t expect them to return to their former values overnight, they should outperform the market in terms of appreciation. If the other complexes do eventually lose their short-term rental rights, they would then go up further as supply is cut.
Maui’s Mayoral Race Will Impact the Real Estate Market
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I’m writing this report a day before I’m supposed to meet Mayor Richard Bissen, whom I have written much of in previous reports.
I was involved in a sale where the buyers used a $600,000 grant from the county’s Ho’okumu Hou first-time homebuyer program. The buyers are a younger couple with two children who lost their home in Lahaina to the fires. I represented the sellers in this transaction, and they were understanding enough to work with some of the nuances of the program.
Ultimately, the deal closed smoothly, and it's definitely a feel-good story to be sure. The Mayor is coming to congratulate the buyers and for a photo shoot to help his reelection campaign.
It’s no secret that Mayor Bissen’s Bill 9 proposal has done more harm to homeowner equity on Maui than any single other event since the global recession of 2009, and that's not hyperbole.
It’s also no secret that his response to the Lahaina fire has been met with a lot of justifiable criticism.
In the last year or so, he has been behind some positive developments, particularly around water security in West Maui, through expanding the current water infrastructure. Recently, he has shown support for Bill 88, which is a compromise on Bill 9, but I'm sure his base is not happy about this.
Bissen’s legacy of Bill 9 and its impact on the community over the last few years will ultimately mean he won’t get my vote.
That’s not to say he hasn’t done some good things, though. As for me, I will be voting for Yuki Lei Sugimura as she has been an opponent of Bill 9 from the beginning, from her position on the County Council, and seems to have the broader Maui community’s best interests in mind, rather than just a subsection of the community.
We can expand the economy, support a higher level of sustainable tourism, while protecting the environment, and increasing access to affordable housing for locals. It’s all possible simultaneously when a balanced plan is in place. To rebuild Lahaina and improve affordable housing, we need less red tape and more hammers and nails.
Buyer Interest Is Picking Up on Maui
Despite falling prices, there are early signals of renewed buyer engagement. Pending sales, which is a leading indicator of future closings, rose 31.6% for condominiums in May compared to a year ago, and increased 13.2% across all property types combined.
Year-to-date pending sales are up 7.6% overall, suggesting demand is not disappearing but rather recalibrating to new price levels.
The Housing Affordability Index reinforced this, jumping 32.1% for condos and 12.9% for single family homes in May, reflecting that lower prices and modest income adjustments are making ownership more achievable for local buyers relative to prior years, although the index remains very low in absolute terms (35 for single family, 70 for condos), underscoring that Maui homeownership remains a significant financial stretch for most residents.
Maui Real Estate Market Single Family Home Data May 2026 vs. May 2025
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Pending Sales Down 5.5%
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Closed Sales Up 3.6%
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Days on Market Down 8.3% to 132 days
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Median Sales Price Down 9% to $1,174,500
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Average Sales Price Down 3.7% to $1,480,682
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Inventory of Homes for Sale Up 1.4% to 449 active listings
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Months Supply of Inventory Down 1.3% to 7.9 months
Maui Real Estate Market Condo Data May 2026 vs. May 2025
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Pending Sales Up 31.6%
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Closed Sales Down 20.3%
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Median Sales Price Down 21.7% to $597,000
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Average Sales Price Down 18.3% to $890,144
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Inventory of Condos for Sale Up 1.9% to 914
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Months Supply of Inventory Down 8.2% to 14.6 months
Get a FREE Comparative Market Analysis in today's market. Read My Complete Guide to Selling Your Home or Condo on MauiWhat's your home worth?
The Challenges of Being a Seller in The Maui Market Lately
Many sellers have found it hard to sell over the last year, as we are also seeing more canceled and expired listings that can sit on the market for months without more than a few showings if not priced correctly. While 2025 was one of the worst statistically for the Maui market since 2009, 2026 is already off to a better start and could still show further improvement.
Selling your Maui home or condo in this market is a nuanced undertaking that requires a thoughtful assessment of the data to make an informed decision on price and positioning.
Buyers are looking for exceptional properties; they are shying away from doing work or remodeling and are extremely sensitive to the comparable sales. Buyers want deals, and lately, they have been finding them as the market has corrected.
Browse Condos For Sale Around Maui
Key Factors Affecting Maui Real Estate in 2026
- Bill 9 Lawsuit Results, Bill 88, Short-Term Rental Rules, and TIG Exemption List Progress (As of June 2026, we are still waiting for the county to push through the new hotel zoning classes, and most signs indicate they will.) Lawsuits against Bill 9 have begun, but nothing more to report at the moment.
- Recovering Tourism Industry
- Investments and building in Lahaina and Water Infrastructure, along with the long-awaited 4 Billion Dollar settlement payout
- Where will interest rates go?
Evan's Closing Thoughts
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Maui's market in mid-2026 can be characterized as correcting if not corrected. Prices are correcting from historically elevated peaks, inventory is high but plateauing, and buyer interest, measured by pending sales, has begun to return.
The road back to balance will likely be gradual, shaped by interest rates, Lahaina's ongoing recovery, and continued demand from both local and mainland buyers watching for a sustainable entry point.
It will take a few more months of rising pending sales to confirm this correction, but if that does become the case, we could see prices fully stabilize and trend back upwards. Please give me a call at 808-214-4799 or email me at evan@mauieliteproperty.com to discuss the market in more detail!
Get In Touch With Evan!
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Evan Harlow ranks among the best real estate agents on Maui annually and is in the top 1% of Coldwell Banker agents worldwide in production. Evan has the expertise, experience, and work ethic to help you achieve your real estate buying and selling goals. We promise exceptional service and support from the beginning of the process through closing and beyond. See what Evan's clients are saying on Google.
Maui Real Estate Market Report December 2025: With Values in Consistent Decline, Is Now a Good Time to Buy?
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Heading into 2026, the Maui real estate market is looking to shake off a historically bad year in terms of value declines (particularly in the condo market) and total closed sales.
We have to go back to November of 2009, the very bottom of the housing market, towards the end of the ‘Great Recession’, to find a period where total closed sales were as low as they have been throughout 2025. The trajectories of both periods of decline, as illustrated in the charts below, look incredibly similar.
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What are the Key Factors Contributing to the Current Value Decline in the Maui Real Estate Market?
Mayor Bissen is most likely proud of the decline of the Maui real estate market, which he has been instrumental in orchestrating, even if it is affecting the equity that all local Maui homeowners have in their properties. To be fair, it's not ALL his fault. However, the goal of Bill 9 was to create more affordable housing, and just the threat of it has pushed condo prices lower at a rate that we haven't seen since the mortgage crisis.
But why aren't more Maui locals and residents buying them at these lower prices?
Macroeconomic Factors
We have two categories of factors contributing to the current decline. The first category is the current macroeconomic climate around the US that includes persistently higher mortgage rates (though they appear to be easing and set to go down further) and increasing costs of ownership, particularly for condos (mainly due to increasing costs of insurance).
HOA fees have risen noticeably in recent years, and that is having an impact on affordability for residents looking for primary residences and on ROI for investors of both long-term and short-term rentals. However, while the mainland condo market is only experiencing a slight decline, Maui is experiencing a historic drop in values because of local factors.
Microeconomic Factors
The second category of factors affecting the Maui real estate market is the local, micromarket factors, such as our local government and its misguided efforts to address our housing shortage by advancing the illegal Bill 9, and a decline in tourism since the Lahaina Fire.
The County has not figured out how it will replace the hole in the economy that losing 7,000 rental units will create, and that is why the bill can never accomplish the goal of creating affordable housing in reality. It all seems to be wasted time as it will be going to court once it is passed. My money is on a Federal Judge finding the ban illegal.
When Can We Really Address Affordable Housing on Maui?
Of course, this has been the story for about 18 months, and while Bill 9 still hasn’t been passed, it has, as of writing this on December 7th, been voted to pass on its 1st reading and is heading to a second reading on the 15th. I’ve written so much about this that I will just link the articles here.
Bill 9 and the short-term rental ban.
TIG Exemption List and Report. Essentially, and most importantly, the findings suggest that the ban not apply to a large number of complexes (plus grandfathered single-family properties) that meet specific criteria and be allowed to upzone to two new Hotel Zoning classes.
View all Hotel Zoned STR Listings.
The current list of complexes (subject to change) that are being proposed to continue allowing short-term rentals is:
Maui Condo Complexes Possibly Exempt from STR Ban
Is Now a Good Time to Buy Real Estate on Maui?
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Yes, it's a very good time to be a buyer on Maui. Not only in the condo market, but also in the single-family home market, prices have come down considerably. We’ve seen some serious deals around the island in the last few months.
There is substantial evidence to believe that the Federal Reserve is going to be cutting rates more aggressively in 2026, and one of the biggest levers in a real estate market is mortgage rates. Rates go up, prices flatten, or go down. Rates go down, prices go up.
You can be sure that you’re not buying at the top, as we have been working our way down from the top of the market in this cycle for over a year now.
I can’t confirm that the bottom of the market is in yet, but if we see successive rate lowering, we should see a reversal trend start to occur relatively soon. Inventory is way up, and sellers understand they need to price competitively to move their property. I have represented a wide variety of buyers this year, and we have been using the market conditions to our advantage with a lot of success.
The Best Things To Do on Maui By Area
Navigating the Current Real Estate Market on Maui as a Seller
Being a seller has been increasingly challenging over the last year. Sellers who price their property in line with the sold comps and competitively with other active listings in their neighborhood or complex will still find a buyer. Sellers who want to try to recapture some of the former values at the top of the market in 2024 with their initial list price are destined to sit on the market. Simply put, don’t overprice your property, and you can find a buyer.
Buyers are very discerning and know where the market is. There are more cash buyers and 1031 exchange buyers than financed buyers, and these cash/1031 buyers are the most savvy kinds of buyers. STR buyers are even more price sensitive, even on hotel-zoned properties, due to the County’s overreach into short-term rental property rights and the lower owner revenue sheets.
With elevated inventory levels, properties that need remodeling are sitting longer, especially if they aren’t pricing in the remodel correctly. It’s always a good idea to make any small repairs or improvements before going on the market and to present the property in the best possible light. That’s what I’m here for! So, if you need an agent to help you move your property in this tough buyer's market, please give me a call at 808-214-4799.
How Much is Real Estate on Maui?
Maui Real Estate Market Single Family Home Data November 2025 vs. November 2024
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Pending Sales Down 8.2%
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Closed Sales Down 22.2%
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Days on Market Up 3.4% to 151 days
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Median Sales Price Down 11.5% to $1,150,000
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Average Sales Price Down 20.8% to $1,335,419
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Inventory of Homes for Sale Up 22.8% to 452 active listings
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Months Supply of Inventory Up 40.7% to 8.3 months
Maui Real Estate Market Condo Data November 2025 vs. November 2024
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Pending Sales Down 4.1%
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Closed Sales Down 5.7%
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Median Sales Price Down 19% to $595,000
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Average Sales Price Down 23% to $734,986
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Inventory of Condos for Sale Up 23% to 897
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Months Supply of Inventory Up 38.4% to 15.5 months
Real estate cycles take time to play out, and we are trending towards the bottom of this market cycle. Especially if the Federal Reserve accelerates its rate-cut cycle in Q4 2025 and in Q1 and Q2 of 2026, given the weak national labor market growth. Please feel free to reach out to me anytime with your questions about the Maui market at 808-214-4799.
Get In Touch With Evan!
Evan Harlow ranks among the best real estate agents on Maui annually and is in the top 1% of Coldwell Banker agents worldwide in production. Evan has the expertise, experience, and work ethic to help you achieve your real estate buying and selling goals. We promise exceptional service and support from the beginning of the process through closing and beyond. See what Evan's clients are saying on Google.
Posted by Evan Harlow R(S) on
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