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Wailea Real Estate Market Report April 2026
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Wailea is one of Maui's most pristine and coveted resort areas. Known primarily for its amazing sunny weather, calm beaches, and luxury lifestyle, Wailea is also home to some of Maui's most beautiful properties and a robust luxury real estate market.
There are 18 different communities with condos for sale in Wailea, 9 of which are currently approved for short-term rentals and 9 of which are not. There are 8 residential neighborhoods with homes for sale in Wailea, all of which are gated.
Makena, a smaller but more expensive market, is included in MLS statistical reporting alongside Wailea. However, with the addition of Makena Golf and Beach Club and the ultra-luxury oceanfront homes in Makena, the numbers can skew the averages, as an oceanfront home in Makena can sell for 30M, and a condo at the Beach Club can go for up to 22M.
My report will include statistics for both Wailea and Makena, but it will mainly focus on the trends I'm seeing as a realtor from my office in Wailea and how they can inform decisions for buyers and sellers.
Factors Driving the Current Wailea Real Estate Market
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I’m not going to sugarcoat this. It’s a rough time to be a seller in Wailea.
Demand is down, supply is up, and the market continues to be a strong buyer's market. Values continue to trend downward, while both inventory and days on market continue to trend upwards, and this downward cycle doesn’t seem like it will end soon. Properties that are desirable, positioned well, and marketed properly are still selling, though.
The real estate market in Wailea and around Maui has a formidable combination of factors conspiring to keep it firmly in buyers' hands, as they increasingly find great deals that would have been unimaginable a couple of years ago.
Average and Median Prices Experiencing a Reset
For nearly two years, the broader real estate market on Maui has been in steady decline, as evidenced by several key metrics, including total closed sales along with median and average closed sale prices.
While our micro-markets and certain segments of our market have performed differently (e.g., apartment-zoned short-term rentals vs. hotel-zoned short-term rentals; single-family homes vs. condos, luxury market vs. non-luxury market), the overall trends have been falling prices, rising inventory, and an increasingly buyer-friendly market.
Iran War Impacts
The ramifications of the war in Iran are working their way through every level of the national and local economy, driven by its global impact on fuel costs.
The shock of oil prices rising so quickly has been weighing heavily on all markets, as we have seen in recent declines in the stock market and sell-offs in Gold, Silver, and Crypto. We are also seeing rising bond yields due to uncertainty, deleveraging, and slowing demand.
After a period of increasing positive signs in the market over the winter months, where new escrows were rising, closed sales were trending upwards, and mortgage rates were trending downward, we have seen the exact opposite since the beginning of the war.
Mortgage Rates on the Rise Again
After a long period of easing, mortgage rates are once again on the rise with national levels around 6.57% as of writing this. Mortgage rates have been rising for 5 straight weeks and are at their highest levels in 8 months.
Prior to the war in Iran, mortgage interest rates had been steadily lowering, and economists were predicting 2-3 rate cuts from the Fed in 2026.
Now, after the Fed’s most recent meeting, it appears we will not see any rate cuts this year and could even see a rate increase if rising inflation continues as expected.
Economists are projecting no rate cuts for the rest of the year, even if Jerome Powell is replaced as Chairman with a loyalist to the President, unconcerned about the Fed’s dual mandate. Rates are not directly set by the Chair and require a majority vote of the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee.
Lowered Tourism Expectations and Bill 9
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In addition to interest rates, there are other downward pricing pressures on the broader Maui and Wailea real estate markets.
Travel to Maui this winter was up over the past two years, a promising sign, but forward-looking numbers from local property management companies indicate that summer will likely see a decline from the rising fuel costs that impact airfare, food prices, and everything else.
Historically, during periods of economic uncertainty, travel is one of the first areas consumers cut back on. This will affect both nightly rates and occupancy rates for short-term rental owners.
Votes on Hotel Zoning Coming Soon
Those short-term rental owners that are also in the apartment zones are facing additional uncertainty around Bill 9 as we continue to await the Maui County Council’s decision on creating the new Hotel Zoning for the condo complexes on the TIG Exemption List.
Condos in Wailea that are on the list are Wailea Ekahi, Wailea Ekolu, Grand Champions, and Palms at Wailea.
This vote is now expected to happen in May. The County Council voted 8-1 to refer the zoning change to the planning commission; however, the commission voted unanimously to reject it. That doesn’t mean the new hotel zoning is dead, though; it will just need 6 out of 9 votes from the Council to pass it in May.
Once it is known if these complexes will be allowed to upzone, the lawsuits against the county are expected to begin and will either be all of the apartment-zoned complexes suing the county or just the half that are not being suggested for upzoning.
Increasing Costs While Decreasing Revenues?
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With the costs of repairing roads and infrastructure from the recent Kona Low flooding hitting the County’s reserve fund, it would seem especially insane now if the Council doesn’t vote to approve the exemption list for hotel zoning, given the impact the ban will have on county revenue from property tax losses.
Maui is also actively working to repair and expand water infrastructure, a much-needed development that will require significant tax dollars. These improvements to water infrastructure will also green-light certain new affordable housing developments that have been sidelined due to water issues.
Why would Maui County need to steal rights from property owners, hamstring the local economy, and fight costly legal battles when we can simply develop our own affordable housing?
More on this to come.
Wailea/Makena Real Estate By The Numbers YTD 2026
Wailea Condos Median Sales Price
Wailea Condos Days on Market 
Wailea Single Family Median Sales Price 
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Wailea Residential Closed Sales
Wailea Percent of List Price Received
Wailea Real Estate New Listings
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Wailea Condos For Sale
Recent Condo Sales in Wailea
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Top Wailea Condo Complexes For 2026
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Makali'i at Wailea
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Ho'olei
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Wailea Homes For Sale
Top Wailea Residential Neighborhoods For 2026
Wailea Kialoa
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Wailea Golf Estates
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In Conclusion
Wailea continues to be a very in-demand area of Maui for luxury buyers, as it always has been and always will be. Prices have been trending downward, but not as far as in other parts of the Maui market, and opportunities exist to find great value.
With some of Maui's best beaches, hottest new restaurants, and great activities, what's not to love? If you've been considering selling or buying a property in Wailea, I would be more than happy to assist in any way I can.
Get In Touch With Evan!
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Evan Harlow ranks among the best real estate agents on Maui annually and is in the top 1% of Coldwell Banker agents worldwide in production. Evan has the expertise, experience, and work ethic to help you achieve your real estate buying and selling goals. We promise exceptional service and support from the beginning of the process through closing and beyond. See what Evan's clients are saying on Google.
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