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Maui Real Estate Market Report February 2026: Are Prices on Maui Still Going Down?
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For nearly two years, the broader real estate market on Maui has been in steady decline, as evidenced by several key metrics, including total closed sales and median and average closed sale prices.
While our micro-markets and certain segments of our market have performed differently (e.g., apartment-zoned short-term rentals vs. hotel-zoned short-term rentals; single-family homes vs. condos, luxury market vs. non-luxury market), the overall trends have been falling prices, rising inventory, and an increasingly buyer-friendly market.
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What Does 2026 Have in Store for the Maui Market?
In my recent market reports, I’ve spent more time discussing how we have arrived at this point in the market, but in this report, I’ll focus on where we are now and where we could be heading for the rest of 2026.
Please keep scrolling down after this article to see my previous market report, which goes into more detail on the factors that have led to this point in the market.
In January, we saw a reprieve from the continuous monthly drops in average and median sold prices. Is this showing a floor or stability at the bottom of the curve?
Possibly. However, it's important to assess each complex or neighborhood and see its performance before jumping in.
Newest Maui Properties For Sale
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Broader Economic Indicators Affecting Maui Real Estate
There are broader macroeconomic factors that could be signaling a return to real estate for many investors. Recent volatility in the stock market and even more volatility in alternative ‘safe (not so safe) haven’ assets, such as Bitcoin and Gold/Silver, suggests a shift away from these holdings and could theoretically signal a return of large capital to the ultimate ‘safe haven’: real estate.
In addition to this, it would appear that the Federal Reserve is slated to lower rates more aggressively this year, with Chairman Jerome Powell’s term coming to an end in May.
His replacement, Kevin Warsh, is expected to initiate a faster rate cut cycle.
Whether this will be a good move in the long term remains to be seen, but in the near term, it could help more buyers enter the market, provided the interest rate cuts have the expected effects on bond yields.
All of these data points suggest we may be at or past the bottom of this market cycle and headed toward a flatter or slightly upward trajectory in values for Maui in 2026.
Browse Condos For Sale Around Maui
How Seasonality Affects the Maui Market
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Whale season is definitely the best time of the year on Maui. Their return also typically signals higher visitor volume and average nightly rates. Over the last two years, that hasn't really been the case, but this year things are looking much better.
Occupancy rates are up this winter, which is a very welcome sign for the recovery of our tourism-dependent economy. Winter has historically been the busiest time of the year for Maui real estate as well, and this winter has certainly seen a notable increase in pending transactions.
For most of 2025, the market hovered around 210 pending transactions, but as of early February, there were 260 pending transactions, roughly a 25% increase over any period in the last 6-9 months.
1031 exchanges seem to happen more this time of the year as well. I have personally seen and am working on several 1031 exchange deals. Cash is always a large part of the Maui market, though financed deals are becoming more common as rate cuts are projected.
Key Factors Affecting Maui Real Estate in 2026
- Interest Rate Cuts and Lower Mortgage Rates
- Bill 9 Lawsuit Results, Short Term Rental Rules, and TIG Exemption List Progress (As of February 2026, we are still waiting on the county to push through the new hotel zoning classes, and all signs indicate that they will. Lawsuits against Bill 9 have begun, but nothing more to report at the moment. )
- Recovering Tourism Industry
- Investments and building in Lahaina, along with the long-awaited 4 Billion Dollar settlement payout to victims
Maui Real Estate by the Numbers
There are several notable differences in the market year over year from January 2025 to January 2026.
For instance, the average sold single-family home price has risen 34.2% (this number can be skewed by large luxury sales; if your home was worth 1M in January of 25, this metric does not mean it is worth 1.34M today), and pending sales are up 55.3%.
In the condo market, average sold prices are down 11.2%, while pending sales are up 4.8%. Closed sales were down 20% while days on market was up 20%.
2025 was a historically bad year for the market, with many similarities to the depths of the Great Recession in 2009, particularly in the much lower-than-average number of closed sales.
The Challenges of Being a Seller in The Market Lately
Many sellers have felt this pain over the last year, as we are also seeing more cancelled and expired listings that can sit on the market for months without more than a few showings if not priced correctly.
Selling your Maui home or condo in this market is a nuanced undertaking that requires a sober assessment of the data to make an informed decision on price and positioning.
Buyers are looking for exceptional properties; they are shying away from doing work or remodeling and are extremely sensitive to the comparable sales. Buyers want deals, and lately, they have been finding them as the market has corrected.
Maui Real Estate Market Single Family Home Data January 2026 vs. January 2025
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Pending Sales Up 55.3%
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Closed Sales Down 11.9%
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Days on Market Up 53.7% to 186 days
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Median Sales Price Up 20.4% to $1,445,000
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Average Sales Price Up 34.2% to $1,934,139
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Inventory of Homes for Sale Up 10.7% to 457 active listings
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Months Supply of Inventory Up 11.3% to 7.9 months
Maui Real Estate Market Condo Data January 2026 vs. January 2025
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Pending Sales Up 4.8%
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Closed Sales Down 20%
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Median Sales Price Down 6.7% to $629,950
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Average Sales Price Down 11.2% to $926,475
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Inventory of Condos for Sale Up 13.1% to 923
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Months Supply of Inventory Up 17.9% to 15.8 months
Closing Thoughts
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If you're considering buying or selling a property on Maui, or just have questions about the market, please feel free to contact me anytime at 808-214-4799.
In 2025, I'm proud to have represented $40,400,000 in sales, placing me in the top 1% of Realtors in the Coldwell Banker network globally for the 3rd consecutive year.
I work diligently for my clients and continue to rank among the best realtors on Maui every year. I would be happy to share my local insights and hard-earned experience with you to help you achieve your real estate goals.
Get In Touch With Evan!
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Evan Harlow ranks among the best real estate agents on Maui annually and is in the top 1% of Coldwell Banker agents worldwide in production. Evan has the expertise, experience, and work ethic to help you achieve your real estate buying and selling goals. We promise exceptional service and support from the beginning of the process through closing and beyond. See what Evan's clients are saying on Google.
Maui Real Estate Market Report December 2025: With Values in Consistent Decline, Is Now a Good Time to Buy?
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Heading into 2026, the Maui real estate market is looking to shake off a historically bad year in terms of value declines (particularly in the condo market) and total closed sales.
We have to go back to November of 2009, the very bottom of the housing market, towards the end of the ‘Great Recession’, to find a period where total closed sales were as low as they have been throughout 2025. The trajectories of both periods of decline, as illustrated in the charts below, look incredibly similar.
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What are the Key Factors Contributing to the Current Value Decline in the Maui Real Estate Market?
Mayor Bissen is most likely proud of the decline of the Maui real estate market, which he has been instrumental in orchestrating, even if it is affecting the equity that all local Maui homeowners have in their properties. To be fair, it's not ALL his fault. However, the goal of Bill 9 was to create more affordable housing, and just the threat of it has pushed condo prices lower at a rate that we haven't seen since the mortgage crisis.
But why aren't more Maui locals and residents buying them at these lower prices?
Macroeconomic Factors
We have two categories of factors contributing to the current decline. The first category is the current macroeconomic climate around the US that includes persistently higher mortgage rates (though they appear to be easing and set to go down further) and increasing costs of ownership, particularly for condos (mainly due to increasing costs of insurance).
HOA fees have risen noticeably in recent years, and that is having an impact on affordability for residents looking for primary residences and on ROI for investors of both long-term and short-term rentals. However, while the mainland condo market is only experiencing a slight decline, Maui is experiencing a historic drop in values because of local factors.
Microeconomic Factors
The second category of factors affecting the Maui real estate market is the local, micromarket factors, such as our local government and its misguided efforts to address our housing shortage by advancing the illegal Bill 9, and a decline in tourism since the Lahaina Fire.
The County has not figured out how it will replace the hole in the economy that losing 7,000 rental units will create, and that is why the bill can never accomplish the goal of creating affordable housing in reality. It all seems to be wasted time as it will be going to court once it is passed. My money is on a Federal Judge finding the ban illegal.
When Can We Really Address Affordable Housing on Maui?
Of course, this has been the story for about 18 months, and while Bill 9 still hasn’t been passed, it has, as of writing this on December 7th, been voted to pass on its 1st reading and is heading to a second reading on the 15th. I’ve written so much about this that I will just link the articles here.
Bill 9 and the short-term rental ban.
TIG Exemption List and Report. Essentially, and most importantly, the findings suggest that the ban not apply to a large number of complexes (plus grandfathered single-family properties) that meet specific criteria and be allowed to upzone to two new Hotel Zoning classes.
View all Hotel Zoned STR Listings.
The current list of complexes (subject to change) that are being proposed to continue allowing short-term rentals is:
Maui Condo Complexes Possibly Exempt from STR Ban
Is Now a Good Time to Buy Real Estate on Maui?
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Yes, it's a very good time to be a buyer on Maui. Not only in the condo market, but also in the single-family home market, prices have come down considerably. We’ve seen some serious deals around the island in the last few months.
There is substantial evidence to believe that the Federal Reserve is going to be cutting rates more aggressively in 2026, and one of the biggest levers in a real estate market is mortgage rates. Rates go up, prices flatten, or go down. Rates go down, prices go up.
You can be sure that you’re not buying at the top, as we have been working our way down from the top of the market in this cycle for over a year now.
I can’t confirm that the bottom of the market is in yet, but if we see successive rate lowering, we should see a reversal trend start to occur relatively soon. Inventory is way up, and sellers understand they need to price competitively to move their property. I have represented a wide variety of buyers this year, and we have been using the market conditions to our advantage with a lot of success.
The Best Things To Do on Maui By Area
Navigating the Current Real Estate Market on Maui as a Seller
Being a seller has been increasingly challenging over the last year. Sellers who price their property in line with the sold comps and competitively with other active listings in their neighborhood or complex will still find a buyer. Sellers who want to try to recapture some of the former values at the top of the market in 2024 with their initial list price are destined to sit on the market. Simply put, don’t overprice your property, and you can find a buyer.
Buyers are very discerning and know where the market is. There are more cash buyers and 1031 exchange buyers than financed buyers, and these cash/1031 buyers are the most savvy kinds of buyers. STR buyers are even more price sensitive, even on hotel-zoned properties, due to the County’s overreach into short-term rental property rights and the lower owner revenue sheets.
With elevated inventory levels, properties that need remodeling are sitting longer, especially if they aren’t pricing in the remodel correctly. It’s always a good idea to make any small repairs or improvements before going on the market and to present the property in the best possible light. That’s what I’m here for! So, if you need an agent to help you move your property in this tough buyer's market, please give me a call at 808-214-4799.
How Much is Real Estate on Maui?
Maui Real Estate Market Single Family Home Data November 2025 vs. November 2024
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Pending Sales Down 8.2%
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Closed Sales Down 22.2%
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Days on Market Up 3.4% to 151 days
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Median Sales Price Down 11.5% to $1,150,000
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Average Sales Price Down 20.8% to $1,335,419
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Inventory of Homes for Sale Up 22.8% to 452 active listings
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Months Supply of Inventory Up 40.7% to 8.3 months
Maui Real Estate Market Condo Data November 2025 vs. November 2024
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Pending Sales Down 4.1%
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Closed Sales Down 5.7%
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Median Sales Price Down 19% to $595,000
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Average Sales Price Down 23% to $734,986
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Inventory of Condos for Sale Up 23% to 897
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Months Supply of Inventory Up 38.4% to 15.5 months
Real estate cycles take time to play out, and we are trending towards the bottom of this market cycle. Especially if the Federal Reserve accelerates its rate-cut cycle in Q4 2025 and in Q1 and Q2 of 2026, given the weak national labor market growth. Please feel free to reach out to me anytime with your questions about the Maui market at 808-214-4799.
Get In Touch With Evan!
Evan Harlow ranks among the best real estate agents on Maui annually and is in the top 1% of Coldwell Banker agents worldwide in production. Evan has the expertise, experience, and work ethic to help you achieve your real estate buying and selling goals. We promise exceptional service and support from the beginning of the process through closing and beyond. See what Evan's clients are saying on Google.
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