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Maui Real Estate Market Report April 2025: Anything But Boring to Start the Year
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"In the midst of movement and chaos, keep stillness inside of you" -Deepak Chopra
There is no question that the first quarter of 2025 has been a wild ride. While I’m writing this market report, I see many different ways to approach an analysis of the current real estate market here in Maui relative to the national and local factors. So, I’m just going to start at the top and do my best not to go on too many tangents.
First, at the macroeconomic level, as we all witnessed, the levying of tariffs around the world by DJT triggered one of the largest stock market sell-offs in history, and the United States entered the early days (or the late days because who knows anymore) of a trade war with the entire world that is upending the stability of the global economy potentially leading to a recession.
Subsequently, the reversal of the tariffs on everyone but Mexico, Canada, and China triggered one of the most significant one-day percentage stock market increases in history, followed by mixed activity. With the 24-hour news cycle, this will all be old news, but the broader stock market still remains significantly slumped and is giving the largest recession signals since 2008.
Recessions and Real Estate
Whether or not this will trigger the first recession intentionally manufactured by public policy remains to be seen. I’m not here to discuss how the tariff reversal market pump and dump was the largest single most corrupt insider trading event in the history of the stock market and that it is insane to think that a sitting president has been able to get away with this in broad daylight, but it does deserve mention.
It does seem apparent that one of the intentions of the full-court press being put on the economy and stock market is to destabilize the economy to the degree that it forces Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. This would ultimately be very good for the real estate market as mortgage rates typically follow suit.
However, the Fed can’t justifiably lower rates yet due to the falling bond yields, but lenders are still pricing in the probability of the rate cuts from Mr. Powell, and we have already seen some rate decreases. Here are the current rates as of 4/10/25 from one of my preferred mortgage lenders on Maui.
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Unusual Global Market Reactions to Tariffs
Usually, when there is a stock market sell-off, international investors move to purchase more bonds; however, with the chaos and corruption, they are choosing to exit the US market completely, which is now keeping bond yields high and hurting the value of the dollar.
Whether that continues remains to be seen. When bond yields are low, interest rates go down, but while the 10-year yield remains elevated, a rate cut could not be perceived as sound economic policy.
Traders are factoring in 4 rate cuts this year and Goldman Sachs places the chances of a global recession this year at 45%. The GDP is expected to stall and may even be negative for the first quarter, so mortgage rates will be going down further; how much is yet to be seen. The last time there was a recession in 2020, rates were cut dramatically, and the real estate market boomed, but would the same happen in this situation?
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Rising Building Costs and Lowered Rates Could Raise Values
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When building prices rise, as the tariffs will require them to, so do existing home values. However, what is the breaking point of home values and affordability? Because we know that lowering rates encourages more buying, which also then increases prices, which could make homeownership less attainable around median prices.
We could be seeing two catalysts to suggest that values will go up around the US and on Maui as well. It’s really hard to predict at this point with the amount of uncertainty happening, but it's at least plausible. However, we have other variables that could balance that out, at least in the short term.
Canadians Love Maui, and Maui Loves Canadians
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Photo: My Wife and I skiing at Whistler, BC, earlier this year
For decades, Canadians have been the largest non-US nationality to own property on Maui, and they are also the largest non-US nationality that loves to vacation on Maui and Hawaii. There is no doubt that the anti-US sentiment by Canadians caused by the trade war is going to reduce Canadian visitation and Canadian buying on Maui this year.
I recently had a Canadian couple under contract on a unit at Wailea Ekahi during the beginning of the Canada tariffs, and they canceled the contract. They didn’t specifically tell me it was because of the trade war, but it seemed pretty clear, as it was exactly what they had been looking for, and we had negotiated a great deal.
A dip in Canadian tourism will certainly be noticed by Maui businesses, but we can celebrate that 2024 was a much needed improvement in tourism numbers over 2023. Many Canadians are refusing to let the trade war interfere with their love of Maui and are continuing to support the place they love.
We can also celebrate that the first quarter of 2025 was almost on par with our pre-fire visitation numbers. As we continue to recover from the fire, our single largest economic driver, tourism, will be pivotal.
Leading me to the next topic, which has finally reemerged after almost a full year of uncertainty, and that is the Mayor’s proposal to ban short term rentals in apartment zoning.
Minatoya List Issues
The Maui County Council finally received the new UHERO report on how the ban wil affect Maui’s economy and the outlook, if the ban is passed at the County Council meeting in June and eventually passes the legal challenges, is extremely dire. The report says:
-Eliminating all TVRs in Apartment zones could reduce visitor accommodations by 25% and visitor days by 32%.
-Total visitor spending is projected to decline by $900 million annually (-15%).
-The decline in spending also results in the loss of 1,900 jobs (-3% of total payroll jobs).
- Real GDP could therefore decline by 4%.
That’s not good for anyone. What’s worse is that property tax revenues would fall up to 60M annually by 2029, and we would lose 15M annually in reduced GET and TAT tax revenue. The condo market, already flooded, could see an additional hit on values, but the market-wide decline would affect locals and owner occupants just as badly.
The report makes it VERY clear that this is not good for anyone, and as much as everyone wants a silver bullet for affordable housing, there just isn’t one.
A) We need a strong job market that allows Maui residents to thrive.
B) We need Maui County to improve its antiquated permitting and zoning system, which was even inhibiting fire-affected residents of Lahaina from rebuilding before the State got involved so that individuals and developers can build faster and more creatively.
C) The County needs to end decades of bad policy and hostility when negotiating with developers. This is a whole other topic though,
Who Might Be Exempted?
It appears clear that Wailea, Kapalua, and Kaanapali will be exempt from any bans per the recommendations of the Planning Commission. Recently, the Mayor spoke at a town hall in Kihei and has walked back his desire for all 7,000(ish) units to be converted and now seems content with only the complexes that were originally built with owner occupancy or workforce housing as the initial intent.
He did not define how that would be decided, but if a ban is voted for and approved in June, it would only seek to repeal the rights of around 1,000 units.
All of that being said, at the end of this experiment, I still believe it cannot succeed. The 2022 case on Oahu set a precedent by a Federal judge that the government does not have the right to take away vested property rights and these short-term rental rights are vested property rights. Read more in my full article about the proposed Maui STR Ban.
The Maui Condo Market Has Overreacted, Giving Buyers a Big Opportunity
The Maui condo market has ballooned over the last year under the threat of the ban. There are 845 condo units for sale around the island as of March 2025; compare this to 491 units for sale in March of 2024 and then compare that to 223 in March of 2023, it's almost a four-fold increase in inventory. At 6 months of inventory the market becomes a buyers market, we are at 14.8 months inventory!
The increased inventory, higher interest rates, rising costs of ownership (HOA insurance increases), and the proposed ban have decreased year-over-year median sales prices by 4.3%. However, we have found ourselves in a really great buying opportunity due to this.
I have recently represented several buyers in condo transactions where we were able to negotiate significant discounts due to these factors, including the largest transaction of my career recently at Wailea Point for unit 101, which closed for 12.6M, a nice drop from its list price of 13.9M. I have also recently sold units at Maui Banyan, Mahana Kaanapali, as well as representing both parties on a deal in Launiupoko. Due to this, I’m having the best quarter in my career, with 22.9M in closed sales in the first three months of 2025.
Single Family Home Market on Maui
Fortunately, as wild as the condo market looks, the single-family market has remained pretty stable. While there are more homes for sale this year versus last year, the total month's supply of inventory just suggests we are in a balanced buyers’ market rather than an extreme buyers' market in the condo category.
You’ll see on the graph that the average sales price is WAY up, but that is misleading as there were three ultra-luxury sales of 7.8M in Pineapple Hill, two sales in Makena at 14.47M and 17.25M that skew the average. The median has remained flat, and luxury single-family homes have seen a resurgence in the past few months.
Overall Maui Real Estate Market Activity
There is activity in the market, that’s for sure. As I mentioned before, the big buyers have been out in full swing through the first 3 months of 2025. However, the median price point in the condo market is stuck in reverse.
Over the last week, during the heart of the trade war/tariff/market pump and dump, there were many new pending transactions. Fortunately, real estate responds slower than the stock market to broader economic activity.
Real estate is always being bought and sold regardless of the market, but knowing how to navigate the broader economic conditions together with the local nuances of Maui is critical to making an informed and successful purchase.
I pride myself on doing just that, so if you are ever in need of a balanced, considered opinion about selling or buying a property in Maui, I’d be honored to be of service to you.
Evan Harlow ranks among the best real estate agents on Maui annually and is in the top 1% of Coldwell Banker agents worldwide in production. Evan has the expertise,
experience, and work ethic to help you achieve your real estate buying and selling goals. We promise
exceptional service and support from the beginning of the process through closing and beyond. See what Evan's clients are saying on Google. Get In Touch With Evan!
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Maui Real Estate Market Report December 2024: A Buyer's Market Heading Into the Busiest Season of the Year
Heading into the holiday season, the real estate market on Maui is coming off an extended period of slower than usual sales and higher than usual levels of inventory. The trends of fewer total closed sales and higher levels of inventory, particularly in the condo market, began early in 2024.
Higher interest rates, the Mayor’s widely unpopular proposed ban on apartment zoned short term rentals, and increasing condo insurance rates have all collectively contributed to this current market on Maui that favors buyers over sellers.
Are Real Estate Values Still Going Up on Maui?
The single family home market and the condo market operate independently on Maui. The single family home market (currently at 6 months of supply) hasn’t been facing the same challenges as the condo market (currently at 11 months of supply). Year to date, median sales prices for single family homes on Maui are up 8.3% vs 2023 while the average sales price is only up 1.8%.
Since the proposed STR ban was announced in May, condominium average sales prices have weighed lower in the apartment zoned short term rental category as buyers have been more cautious until the county council makes their decision on the matter after the economic impact study is released. This is expected to occur in January/February of 2025.
Overall, year to date in December of 2024, median sales prices of condos are still up 8.4% and average prices are up 19.1% compared to 2023. These numbers are a little skewed as Wailea’s newest condo community, La’i Loa, closed on the majority of its pre construction sales early in 2024 with 57 sales in the complex totaling 151 million in volume.
Single Family Numbers
Condo Market Numbers on Maui
Is It a Good Time to Buy Property in Maui?
This is the most loaded question I ever get asked. As a real estate agent, the answer people always expect us to say is simply and emphatically, yes. Maui real estate has always outperformed. However, even in hot market or a slower market, there are a lot of nuances to a correct answer. Generally speaking, looking at the market, its a better time to be a buyer than it has been in years from several perspectives.
We are in a buyer's market. This doesn't mean that in certain niche complexes and neighborhoods that buyers can negotiate prices lower, but overall we have a very high level of condo inventory, specifically in the apartment zoned STR category. Maui also has more single family home inventory than we have had in years also. So, from an option perspective, its a great time to be a buyer.
We're now floating in the low 6% range on mortgage rates with a lower average than we have seen in the last two years. With the most recent jobs report, its unlikely we will see that second rate cut in 2024, but most experts agree we are still going to be floating down for the next few years and lenders are offering free refinancing as rates go lower. From a rate perspective, yes its a better time to be a buyer.
For buyers willing to assume some risk, there are some great opportunities to be had in the STR market. All we can do is use the available information to calculate the risk and make informed decisions. In July, the Planning Commission indicated that it would recommend that the County Council allow apartment zoned STR's in resort districts including Wailea, Kapalua, and Ka'anapali to rezone to hotel.
Assuming the ban passes all of its obstacles to becoming law, it is now less likely to include those areas, and that makes sense as these are the absolute worst options for affordable housing as they have the highest HOA's and carrying costs. We have been seeing more activity in those zones after the Planning Commission meeting.
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Buyer Representation Agreements Now in Practice
As a result of the recent NAR settlement, buyers and buyer agents are now required to have a buyer representation agreement signed before touring a property.
The agreement document itself isn't new, just the requirement to have it signed prior to showing property. It hasn't had a negative impact on the process and actually provides an extra layer of security for both buyers and real estate professionals. To learn more about how I'm using the agreement and working with my clients, read my full article on working with a buyer's agent here.
Is It a Good Time to Sell on Maui?
This one is a little tricky. It is still not a great time to be a seller of an apartment zoned STR unless you have owned for more than 5 years and really need to sell. I have consulted many owners over the last few months and have even encourage many not sell until the dust has settled on the whole ban proposal in early 2025
The apartment zoned STR market is flooded and even with reduced prices, they are not moving because of the fear the mayor has stoked. I encourage each and every owner and person who cares about Maui to fight the proposal through all means including writing the Maui County Council.
For single family homes, hotel-zoned condos, and the rest of the market, its a great time to get ready to sell if you're considering. By that, I mean we are coming into the winter months that have historically been our best season for sales. The market is already showing signs of improvement and tourism pre-bookings look much better for this winter which will stimulate more buying.
To fully capture that market, listing in lateDecember/early January will give you the best period of time for activity. By planning now, we would be able to address any work the home may need and develop a comprehensive marketing strategy to capture its highest and best price. Learn more about my selling process here.
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Interested in Learning More About Maui Real Estate?
Please feel free to call or email me with any questions you may have about thee current market on Maui. Maui's real estate market is diverse and nuanced, as such, general market principles don't always apply to every property. I'm happy to listen to your buying or selling goals and provide my opinion anytime. Have a great holiday season!
Get In Touch With Evan!
Evan Harlow ranks among the best real estate agents on Maui annually and is in the top 1% of Coldwell Banker agents worldwide in production. Evan has the expertise, experience, and work ethic to help you achieve your real estate buying and selling goals. We promise exceptional service and support from the beginning of the process through closing and beyond. See what Evan's clients are saying on Google.
Previous Maui Market Report - August 2024: Bad Politics and High Interests Rates Make A Cold Summer For the Maui Real Estate Market
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Since the announcement of the proposed short term rental condo ban in the apartment districts on Maui on May 2nd, the Maui real estate market has been reeling from the potential impact the ban would have on values. In the last three months, a veritable tidal wave of condo inventory has hit the market in the apartment zoned short term rentable complexes amid the uncertainty of the possibility of the ban happening.
You can read more about the current status and legal challenges of the proposed ban here, but for the purposes of this market report, I’ll stick to the ramifications its having on the current market that for the first time in a long time favors buyers.
A Buyer's Market in Full Swing
In my last market report back in May, the market was shifting from a neutral market to a buyer's market and now we are definitely in a buyer's market. The condo market isn’t the only market that has slowed down considerably, the single family market is also showing the effects of the current interest rate cycle.
While mortgage rates have dropped in the last week to their lowest level in over a year and appear to be headed lower, single family homes have been taking longer to sell and buyers have been able to negotiate discounts from listing prices more often than not.
The only buyers in the short term rental condo market in the apartment districts are those who are hunting for a deal and many are finding them. Many sellers are concerned about the long term impacts the ban will have on their ability to carry their units over time and are having to drop prices dramatically to secure a contract or face sitting on the market indefinitely.
Other long term rental condo complexes are also facing challenges finding buyers as the HOA costs have increased significantly due to rising insurance costs and being required to carry 100% rebuild cost on their policies. It's important to work with an expert buyer's agent on Maui when buying a home or condo due to the evolving costs and nuances of thee market.
Micro Markets Around Maui
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If you have read my previous market reports or are very familiar with the Maui market you'll know that Maui has many micro markets and even though we are a small island, every area of the island is its own market in many ways.
Looking Upcountry or in Haiku, you wouldn't notice too many changes, its still relatively low in inventory and home sales are pretty normal. Prices are on a gentle upwards trajectory. If you're looking for a single family home in Wailuku or Kahului it can still be challenging and is still more of a seller's market with several homes going over asking in certain circumstances.
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However, a majority of our transactions take place in South Maui and West Maui where the larger supply of second homes and investment condos are. The second home market is still moving fairly consistently, but there is a little more inventory than we have been used and buyers are being much more selective. In the fire affected areas of West Maui there is still some hesitation for many second home buyers until the future of Lahaina becomes more clear.
Hotel zoned short term rental condos around Maui are still in a neutral level of inventory with stable pricing, but the demand has softened somewhat and that has created opportunities for some buyers to find discounts in that market. In contrast, the apartment zoned short term rentals are abundant on the market and only selling for 25-40% below their pre-STR ban proposal prices.
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The Good News About The Market
As we come to the 1 year anniversary of the tragic fires, some good news coming from Lahaina is that the Army Corps of Engineers and the hundreds of workers have almost completely cleared all of the residential lots and will soon be able to start rebuilding.
Once all of the residential lots are cleared in the next month, all of the commercial lots are slated to be cleared by the end of the year. It does sound like estimates to seeing the completed reinvention and rebuilding of Lahaina are closer to 4/5 years rather than the 10 years it originally seemed like. It's been a tough year for everyone of Maui and for everyone who loves Lahaina, but its a welcome sight to see the progress that is being made with the recovery and with finding housing for the survivors.
The other good news for the market is that we have seemingly passed the peak of the high interest rate cycle and mortgage rates are falling. This is already having a positive impact on activity in just the last week since they began to go lower. It still seems like we will be in this market cycle likely until the end of the year and for buyers, its an opportune time to make a move.
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I Love Questions About The Market
If you have any questions about the Maui real estate market, I’d be happy to answer them for you. Feel free to give me a call at 808-214-4799 or shoot me a message through the form below.
Get In Touch With Evan!
Evan Harlow ranks among the best real estate agents on Maui annually and is in the top 1% of Coldwell Banker agents worldwide in production. Evan has the expertise, experience, and work ethic to help you achieve your real estate buying and selling goals. We promise exceptional service and support from the beginning of the process through closing and beyond. See what Evan's clients are saying on Google.
Previous Maui Real Estate Market Report From May 2024
Since my last Maui real estate market report in Q4 of 2023 a LOT has happened. The last 4-5 months have been packed full of market impacting events. Many changing variables at the local and national level have contributed to the current market conditions that favor buyers more now than they have in a very long time. I’ll get started with what’s been going on locally.
May 4th Update: Maui County Seeks To Repeal Minatoya Rights to Apartment-Zoned Short-Term Rentals
Protesters and Hotels Force The Hand of The Mayor to Try to Repeal Property Rights
I originally wrote the rest of this market report about a week prior to the news that Maui County will seek to ban apartment zoned short term rental condos on Maui on the Minatoya List, a law that secured rights for owners of certain apartment-zoned complexes to rent short-term. Almost every single one of these complexes had been built with the purpose of renting short term in mind. They are not built and maintained for long term living.
This is undoubtedly sending shockwaves through the island and real estate market right now and it is imperative that owners of these units that are being threatened submit testimony to the county to protect their property rights. Most importantly make your concerns known loud and clear to the Maui County Planning Department and send them an email at planning@mauicounty.gov or call them at 808-270-7735. We will need to work very hard to not only ensure property rights are protected on Maui, but to help Maui avoid a broader disaster that will harm local people irreparably.
Repealing the rights of these short-term rental property owners will unfortunately not produce the desired result of immediately producing more affordable housing. There are 108 condos currently for sale on the market that are not short-term rentable with average days on the market of 70 days. We are not experiencing a shortage of inventory in housing, we are experiencing the same affordability issues that exist across the US.
Our short-term rental condo owners have suffered with all of us after the Lahaina fires, many immediately opening their units up for displaced victims, signing up for the FEMA program, and donating millions of dollars in cash and supplies while also donating much of their time to help in the aftermath.
Even if 1,000 of these 7,000 units became available for sale at half their current value as a short-term rental, they would still not be affordable for the average household on Maui that has a median combined income of 95,000/year. Condo ownership has become even more expensive and most of these condos that are being threatened have maintenance fees over 1,000/month due to increasing insurance costs, common area maintenance, and building reserves. This could also have a negative affect on property values for all owners on Maui, taking away hard-earned equity from tens of thousands of other residents living and working on Maui.
Stealing property rights from these owners will also produce approximately 30M less per year just in property tax revenue for the county and countless other millions annually in associated losses to tourism revenue and taxes. Building more affordable and workforce housing with the tax proceeds within our existing property rights is the pragmatic solution.
At the moment, these A1 and A2 zoned units still have the right to rent short term, and not until the county council approves the bill that the mayor has asked the planning commission to prepare will things potentially change. Even if the bill does pass the council, a class action lawsuit will ultimately follow. The mayor, a former judge, says he expects this and knows that the courts will be the final decision-makers.
In the meantime, we will have to navigate the sales of A1 and A2 zoned STR properties in a new way and there will certainly be a negative impact on current value with the possibility of a ban looming. Hotel-zoned properties have not been targeted and are not included in the discussion. Please feel free to reach out with any questions.
The Minatoya List
Local Real Estate Market Factors on Maui
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The impact of the Lahaina fires continue to unravel in the market here on Maui. Fortunately, it sounds like the FEMA program that enlisted thousands of property owners to rent their homes to displaced fire victims through FEMA has been a huge success.
Both the state and Maui County have indicated that they will be able to move all of the remaining fire victims out of the Ka’anapali hotels and into these properties by June. This is welcome relief for these individuals and families who have been living in a lot of uncertainty while having to go back and forth between rooms at the hotels. This will also be a boost for the West Maui economy as tourists resume coming to these hotels and properties.
Early in the FEMA enlistment program the Governor threatened a ‘moratorium’ on short term rentals on Maui if they were unable to secure enough rentals. Almost like an airline threatening to cancel an overbooked flight if 5 passengers don’t take the credit and get on the next flight.
This however proved to be unnecessary, but it did provide some uneasiness amongst STR owners and anyone in the tourism business as that could have a disastrous effect on our local economy. I had many conversations with a lot of my clients about this and from the beginning it seemed like political posturing and it was.
These short term rental condos are mainly 1bd and 2bd floor plans and were built for transient accommodations. They cannot comfortably become permanent housing for families and with the increases in insurance, those families cannot also afford the HOA’s, which include complex management, landscaping, amenities, etc. The solution isn’t to cause damage to our second home owners and investors who pay the majority of the property tax collected by Maui county and who also have shown incredible kindness through charitable donations.
We need to build more multi-family complexes and affordable residential neighborhoods, something the state and county has previously been at fault for intentionally delaying and purposefully making difficult for developers. Now, they will seek to expedite the permitting and approval processes to improve conditions for developers.
Legislation to Give Counties More Latitude With STR's
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A bill is circulating in the senate that will give individual counties more latitude in their approach to short term rental zoning and restrictions. Interestingly, the counties already have latitude and flexibility in this department. Two years ago Maui County decided to put a moratorium on the construction of any new short term rentable condo complexes with Bill 159. This was just Maui County. If you’ve traveled around Hawaii, you’ll see a different climate with STR’s on every island.
The Big Island still allows short term rentals of single family properties, on Maui that was rolled back and only certain properties that went through a lengthy 5 year approval process or were grandfathered in can rent short term. The right also doesn’t transfer at sale on Maui. So, this bill isn’t particularly concerning for us here on Maui. While it is important to acknowledge we have an exacerbated housing crisis on Maui, doing anything with the rights of short term rental condo owners isn’t the silver bullet a small group is hoping it would be. Look, if it were, I would be behind it too, it just doesn't fix anything when you look at the domino effect.
In fact, these short term rental owners and rentals are contributing big time, through the taxes they pay as well as the philanthropic contributions they have been making, as we heal and recover economically. Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet to fix our housing crisis as we are also subject to the same broader economic factors that the rest of the country is facing contributing to the broader housing crisis, we just need to build as efficiently and economically as possible with local families in mind.
National Real Estate Market Factors
Many in the real estate and lending communities were celebrating back in December and January when it appeared as if we may see 3-6 rate cuts this year. After last weeks inflation numbers and consumer spending reports, it looks like we may not see any rate cuts until 2025. With this unexpected economic strength in the face of continued inflation we should settle into the idea that we will be in the 6-7% range for the foreseeable future.
Throughout the higher interest rate period, home prices have still been appreciating reliably. This is good news for both buyers and owners. The higher rates haven't been a big problem for buyers on Maui over the past few months either, it has however decreased the total pool of buyers, but it has also given them some power.
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